Social media's already starting to light up with talk of Saturday as a possible chase day. Greg Forbes is leading the charge with a "TORCON" of 3 in W OK, I think. The setup is still fuzzy. The Euro has an upper low centered over CO by Saturday evening, while the GFS keeps it farther southwest and almost cuts it off a little bit. Both models forecast a modest surface cyclone centered around the N TX Panhandle, the OK Panhandle, and SW KS. The Euro leans toward a broader, weaker low. Even the GFS only manages to advect mid/upper 60s surface temps and upper 50s dewpoints into the area of interest; I have to imagine the Euro solution would result in even less favorable low-level conditions. The GFS solution has <750 CAPE along the dryline except for a little bullseye in KS. Forecast hodographs are unconvincing as well, with less than impressive low-level shear and a weird kink around 500 mb. Unless model guidance changes a lot, I don't expect more than maybe a short drive west for lightning after dark. Even shelf cloud shots along a squall line would be tough, with a lot of cloud junk around.
