First impressions:
1. The Moore mythology is back. After the May 3, 1999 F5 and the May 8, 2003 F4 carved partially overlapping paths of destruction through Moore, there was a strong sense that this unlucky city somehow attracted tornadoes. While there may be some unusual locations around mountains, large river valleys, etc., where geography plays a significant role in tornadogenesis, I can almost guarantee that's not the case in central Oklahoma. It's not pancake-flat, but it's close enough that I seriously doubt terrain influences the tracks of tornadoes. People have a wrongheaded view of what "random" means. A perfectly spaced distribution of tornadoes where nobody is ever hit twice would be anything but random. Random means last year's tornado strike has absolutely no bearing on your chance of being struck this year. A coin that lands tails-up ten straight times still has a 50/50 chance of landing tails-up on the next flip. The dramatic failure of the so-called Norman bubble on 5/10/10 and 4/13/12 had begun to detract from the Moore lore. However, recent town hall meetings conducted by Randy Peppler, Kim Klockow, and Rick Smith indicated the public still felt Moore was abnormally vulnerable to tornadoes.
There is no hope of containing the urban legend now. Admittedly, this is hard to explain away as a coincidence. Per SPC's tornado environment browser, the part of central Oklahoma surrounding OKC-Moore-Norman saw 21 violent tornadoes from 1962 to 2011. These tornadoes' damage swaths covered an area of 306.9 square miles. The radius of the region we're looking at is 75 miles, giving an area of about 17,662.5 square miles. So, even here in the tornado capital of the world, only about 1.74% of the land area was affected by F4-5 tornadoes over the course of 50 years. That roughly translates to any given point having a 0.49% chance of being hit in a 14-year period. There are not one, but two, points in the 21.9 square miles of Moore that were each hit twice from May 1999 to May 2013. In this span, four violent tornadoes have struck that sliver of real estate (a less infamous EF4 hit south Moore on 5/10/10). If the public perception that tornadoes tend to go through Moore had been somewhat weakened, that's no longer the case. And who can blame a non-meteorologist for feeling that way? We can only hope it doesn't create an illusion of security in surrounding areas.
2. Sometimes you just can't win. The most heartbreaking story I've heard in this, or any, tornado event is that of the children in the elementary school who sought shelter in designated areas and still did not survive. There were probably many other victims across Moore who did everything right and sought the best shelter available to them, but died anyway. Closets and bathrooms simply weren't enough.
The bottom line here is that high-end tornadoes in densely populated areas will inevitably take lives. Today, nature spotted us five points. First, this was a classic supercell in broad daylight. Most people in the path could see the beast approaching. Second, storm motion was reasonable--about 30 mph, compared to 50+ mph for some of the April 27, 2011 monsters in Dixie Alley. Third, it was not rush hour; 5/3/99 was. Fourth, the storm was tornado-warned 16 minutes before the funnel condensed. The proximity of the TDWR west of Norman provided an extraordinary view of the elongated hook echo at that time. Most of Moore had lead time in excess of 30 minutes. And fifth, this was Moore. Nowhere on earth is there a more storm-ready population. People there don't think their town is immune from tornadoes; if anything, they swear it's a twister magnet. Most residents have been through at least one big tornado and have some plan of action. Live severe weather coverage on OKC TV and radio stations is second to none. Most homes in Moore are solidly built, in contrast to the mobile homes the Shawnee tornado devoured less than 24 hours prior. Nature spotted us five points and still won big. Sometimes it just doesn't matter.
3. Meteorologically, this came out of left field. When the emotional side of my brain wore itself out and the geeky side kicked in, I started to wonder why this freakish storm did what it did. If this singular tornado had never existed, or had hit rural areas, you could scarcely justify using the word "outbreak" at all. There were 16 preliminary reports of tornadoes, scattered from central Texas to northeastern Missouri, and including a couple landspouts on the High Plains far from the main action. This was not a May 3rd or a May 24th, a day with obscene parameters across the board. In fact, some chasers thought the previous day's storms would be the best this system had to offer. Here's a special sounding taken at Norman less than three hours before the Newcastle-Moore tornado began doing damage:
Yeah, thermodynamically, this is a loaded gun in the process of going off. But those winds...SRH around 150 is not what you associate with violent tornadoes. You would expect a large curved or even sickle-shaped hodograph in the lower levels, not that anemic veering. It's absolutely unbelievable that one of the most catastrophic tornadoes in recorded history came in an environment where 900-mb winds were SSW at 20 kt. I know 5000 J/kg SBCAPE will make up for a lot. It may effectively alter wind profiles in the vicinity of the storm. Yet if that's all there is to it, why didn't we see an outbreak? Every other storm in the region, despite the instability, behaved in a way appropriate for this wind profile. This storm exploded from nothing, immediately generated an exceptionally powerful tornado over a 17-mile track (mediocre for an EF4-5), and did not produce another significant tornado. Something critical happened on the mesoscale level near Newcastle. I want to know what it was.
Updated: Here's spotty data from the Purcell wind profiler leading up to the event. It indicates no real improvement in environmental low-level wind fields through 2:00 p.m. local time, less than an hour before the tornado touched down.
4. I love Oklahoma. From the people who stepped out of their cellars and only said, "The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away," to the thousands upon thousands now focusing their efforts on the survivors, there is no better place on the planet. I'm not saying those traits are exclusively Oklahoman. They're just on display in the Sooner State time and again when bad things happen to its good people. You might call my second home flat, backward, redneck, overweight, and a little rebellious, but I'd do just about anything to be there tonight.
