I don't know if I'll chase today. Probably will. It looks like the front placement may split the difference between the NAM and GFS, and that leads to an interesting thought. Just wanted to mention something that's floating around in the realm of possibilities.
- Mid-afternoon: Convection initiates on the dryline not too far south of the triple point in NW TX.
- Strongly backed low-level flow carries the developing updraft almost due north (this is why I think nothing initiated by the front will survive).
- Late afternoon: The storm strengthens and turns to the northeast in the ideal environment just south of the front, in SW OK.
- With a continued right turn, the supercell's motion approaches the SW-NE boundary orientation.
- Early evening: Motion becomes parallel to the boundary at exactly the time the storm reaches it.
- Through late evening: LLJ arrives in force and the rogue boundary-riding supercell drops a string of significant tornadoes across OK.
- Front begins advancing southeastward again, finally undercutting the storm.
As a low-probability (storm has to fire in precisely the right place), high-impact (could produce tors along a 100+ mile path) event, is that far-fetched?
More likely, we'll see a couple nice supercells around Snyder-Wichita Falls-Walters-Lawton. These would easily be capable of producing significant tornadoes. Convection along the front stands no chance of becoming established before moving northward into colder air, so this may limit severe potential in much of Oklahoma. RAP's orientation of the front in NE OK may, however, allow a few storms to get into the warm sector in NE OK/SE KS/SW MO. This would mean a second tornado hotspot up there, where hodographs are just obscene. For now, I think the only major tornado threat to central OK is as described above, with a storm from the dryline rooting on, or even turning eastward from, the frontal boundary. No matter what happens, it's time for me to get sleep now.
Preliminary target: Grandfield, OK
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