Another offseason storm day (2/3/12) in S OK?

   I'm pretty excited to be writing this discussion right now.  Whether the current forecast verifies or not, it's good to have a potential severe weather day on the horizon at the beginning of February.  Friday is going to be another one of those touch-and-go offseason days like November 7th.  The last 3 GFS runs suggest a surface low forming Thursday into Thursday night up around NW OK into the Panhandle region.  The 00z NAM tonight is hinting at the same thing, though daytime Friday remains out of its range.  If that low can form and deepen a little, it's a classic severe weather setup.  Model guidance suggests modest CAPE, sufficient shear, and plenty of helicity.  Moisture advection will have to occur rapidly as the low develops, but it appears 60F dew points have a good chance to cross the Red River.  NAM is a little more promising with moisture.  An upper-level trough, which the GFS tries to turn into a cutoff low through the day, will provide lift.  The SPC has noted the possibility already in its day 4-8 outlook.  That's really all I have to say about it right now--at four days out, numerical prediction is about all there is to go on when it comes to relatively localized severe weather events.  But just for fun, my target for Friday:  Ardmore, OK.  (I wish I had an obscure little wide-spot-in-the-road town to make me cool, but Ardmore's really where I would head if things didn't change.)

EDIT:  00z GFS obscures things a little, moving the surface low SE slightly, toward Euro solution which would mean no chase.  Just based on current guidance, I wouldn't go, but the setup will change a dozen times between now and then.

EDIT:  It's Wednesday morning now, and the 06z NAM is insisting the low will be farther east in SE KS, too far to go after such a mediocre setup.  NAM has been indicating a cold-core setup in S KS for several runs, with parameters sufficient for such an event.  The SREF this morning is beautiful for N OK cold-core or warm-front stuff, placing the surface low far WSW of Wichita, out closer to Liberal.  While this would be a huge stroke of luck, meaning we could start with Enid as a target and go from there, I'm only hoping for a compromise between the NAM, GFS, and SREF, putting a chance for cold-core storms around Wichita Friday afternoon.  SPC has gone Day 3 slight risk for a small area around the DFW metro, but shear is not as good down there and it appears one might have to take off eastward from there to actually chase--east Texas is both iffy terrain and a long way from Norman.  So it looks like cold-core or nothing for Friday.

EDIT:  Per 00z NAM and GFS, whole setup's gone to crap.  Going to do my p-math and intro homework and forget about chasing...

EDIT:  Chased it.  Everything lined out.  Was introduced to In-N-Out in Fort Worth so the whole thing was worthwhile.